If the results of the simulation conducted by the University of Reading in the UK about the World Cup are correct, there is good news waiting for the Argentina football team and its fans. Then Lionel Messi’s team will win the World Cup for the second time in a row!
James Reid, an economics professor at the university, used a simulation model to find that Argentina is the clear frontrunner in the race to win the 2026 World Cup. The gap between France and Spain, who are in second and third place, is almost non-existent. Brazil and England are right behind them.
Reid simulated each match of the 48-team tournament 10,000 times to determine each country’s chances of winning. The model used data from all international matches played since January 2023 to assess the strength of each country’s attack and defence. Some countries have played as few as 36 matches during this period, while others have played as many as 100.
The model takes this inequality into account and also adds a home team advantage for matches played at venues other than neutral venues. The outcome of the match is then determined using a statistical distribution that calculates the possible goals scored by both teams.
Reid said of the simulation model, “This model goes beyond just general rankings and evaluates the attacking and defensive strengths of each team separately, resulting in a much richer and more realistic picture.”
